COMING SOON
Why your imbalance penalty isn't a forecasting problem
Generation accuracy and imbalance cost are different problems with different solutions. Most vendors solve the first and bill you for the second.
INSIGHTS
Notes from live markets.
Analysis drawn from production forecasting in Georgia and Turkey — imbalance, market reform, and what honest backtesting actually looks like.
COMING SOON
Beating the incumbent: 18 months of live spread-sign forecasting in Turkey
What it takes to forecast whether balancing settles above or below day-ahead, and why the honest ceiling is 85%, not 100%.
COMING SOON
Turkey's 2027 market reform: what changes for every renewable producer
Quarter-hourly settlement, mandatory aggregator membership, portfolio-level KÜPST. What to prepare now.
COMING SOON
The quarter-hour problem nobody can buy their way out of
There is no native 15-minute numerical weather prediction for Turkey. From 2027, that becomes everyone's problem.
COMING SOON
Building forecasts where the data is thin
What we learned modelling Georgian run-of-river hydro, and why it transfers to every emerging power market.
COMING SOON
How to audit a forecasting vendor's backtest
Issue-time discipline, rolling-origin retraining and leakage audits: the three questions that separate a real number from a slide.
Want one of these ahead of publication, or a walkthrough of the underlying analysis? Write to us.